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October 15, 2018

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Toronto Real Estate | Why is it cooling? | Credit Cycle

October 12, 2018

What is cooling Toronto Real Estate?


Canadian Real-estate continuous to cool down and Toronto is still the fastest cooling provinces in Canada. Canadian Real estate Association provided the report that six significant markets in east Toronto has declined and the significant decline is noticed in the Greater Toronto Area. 




The more predictions are made by different sectors for this cooling of Toronto Real-estate business, as the credit cycle plays a big part and where we are in the cycle is important to note. This year now it is predicted that the median rate of the national house price will rise by 1.7 percent and which is lower than the rates in June which were 1.9 percent. 


In Toronto, Canada’s largest city, the home prices in the provinces are expected to increase to a large extent this year as compared to the last ten years. The poll found that it is supposed to be 3.0 percent next year which was 2.0 percent in June. 


New rules were implemented this year, and these rules were called “stress-tests” in which the interest rate is around 2 percent which is much higher than the expected one. The “Sales to new listing ratio” is expected to be 40-60 every year, but last year was much unexpected for whole the country. Sales to new listing ratio are the indicator which is quite helpful but not perfect. 


According to CREA (Canadian Real-Estate Association), the fastest cooling markets are all located in the Golden Horseshoe. The SNLR of Toronto fell about 40 this year which is a very much large percentage as compared to last year.However, now many respondents say that the risk of the correction in the national market has decreased from previous three months for all Canada. Still, there are not many improvements in the area of Toronto. 


The period of the expansion and  very low-interest rate is the reason there has been an increase in prices of the houses throughout provinces. This has not only increased the house rates but also a surge in debt as there were many properties which were financed by debt. In many of the cases, the homeowners were borrowing $150-$200K against their houses so that they can use the down payment to invest in the property they have purchased. The other thing is what we have discussed already the new stress test according to which the interest rates are increased to 2 percent which is unexpected and another reason for the cooling down of Toronto Real Estate market. 


The first effect of the increased interest rates is that today buyers cannot spend as they use to do earlier. Moreover, this has become another reason for slowing the demand for housing in the provinces. 


Another thing to look after is the how the increasing interest rates are going to affect the homeowners who have spent a lot on their homes, and now they are struggling to keep up with the growing debt. 


For these people, the rising costs are already put in the strain of their finances. Moreover, with the increase in interest rates, the pressure on household finances will only increase. We can also notice the early signs that the customers are spending less on costly things like cars, etc.

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